Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.049627 0.056454 0.064091 0.073306 0.084175 0.096653 0.112150
2025-12-14 0.038630 0.046860 0.056822 0.069898 0.086802 0.108187 0.137720
2025-12-21 0.029558 0.037749 0.048317 0.063197 0.084006 0.112692 0.156349
2025-12-28 0.024816 0.033275 0.044879 0.062382 0.088876 0.128802 0.196243
2026-01-04 0.021515 0.030190 0.042802 0.063135 0.096426 0.151377 0.255043
2026-01-11 0.018605 0.027193 0.040349 0.062907 0.102702 0.174494 0.326001
2026-01-18 0.016222 0.024607 0.038089 0.062587 0.109021 0.200515 0.417240
2026-01-25 0.013983 0.021904 0.035187 0.060600 0.112015 0.222015 0.513452
2026-02-01 0.011977 0.019285 0.031997 0.057448 0.112043 0.238047 0.609585
2026-02-08 0.010729 0.017783 0.030537 0.057347 0.118677 0.272831 0.787955
2026-02-15 0.009692 0.016506 0.029282 0.057425 0.125974 0.313700 1.028913
2026-02-22 0.008887 0.015539 0.028465 0.058293 0.135735 0.367691 1.387606
2026-03-01 0.008138 0.014593 0.027582 0.058963 0.145844 0.431387 1.898913
2026-03-08 0.007325 0.013416 0.026029 0.057710 0.150419 0.481269 2.447598
2026-03-15 0.006394 0.011882 0.023480 0.053419 0.144572 0.490072 2.784206
2026-03-22 0.005905 0.011200 0.022713 0.053616 0.153270 0.566322 3.824357
2026-03-29 0.005546 0.010746 0.022392 0.054980 0.166807 0.678927 5.632347
2026-04-05 0.005170 0.010205 0.021783 0.055405 0.177504 0.791570 8.078036
2026-04-12 0.004824 0.009689 0.021156 0.055645 0.187931 0.918154 11.683964
2026-04-19 0.004441 0.009042 0.020105 0.054336 0.191642 1.011378 15.696953
2026-04-26 0.004048 0.008333 0.018793 0.051897 0.189544 1.065963 19.663355
2026-05-03 0.003809 0.007958 0.018303 0.052079 0.199802 1.231800 29.641084
2026-05-10 0.003597 0.007623 0.017872 0.052373 0.211080 1.430758 46.329678